A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
