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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still