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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd